Private Analyses Indicate Mixed U.S. Employment Trends Amid Government Data Absence

"...Economists, journalists, and investors won't be waiting by their laptops this morning for a new jobs report...."

"...It's the second month without this data release...."

"...The agency isn't releasing most reports or collecting data during the government shutdown, which is the longest one in US history...."

"...However, job seekers, economists, and anyone else missing the BLS reports can turn to recent publications from ADP, Indeed, Bank of America, and others to get a sense of how the job market and broader economy are doing...."

"...The analyses showed that October was still a tough month for job seekers...."

"...Allison Shrivastava, an economist with the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider it's lucky that there are a lot of private sector data releases to "piece together a picture of what's going on in the economy."..."

"...However, she added that even those alternative sources often rely on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calibrate their work, so without it, job-market clarity is muddied...."

"...Here's what recent releases said about October's job market...."

"...The ADP national employment report beat expectations..."

"...Despite beating the 32,000 consensus, Nela Richardson, the chief economist at ADP, said in the news release that hiring was modest...."

"...Most of the net growth came from large companies that have at least 500 employees...."

"...Job growth was mixed by industry...."

"...Trade, transportation, and utilities together added 47,000 jobs...."

"...Employment dipped in information, manufacturing, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality...."

"...Bill Adams, the chief economist for Comerica Bank, said in commentary that the federal layoffs — which aren't included in the ADP national employment report — would pretty much cancel out the private employment growth in October...."

"...Many government workers aren't working during the government shutdown and are missing pay...."

"...Challenger, Gray & Christmas found a stunning jump in announced job cuts..."

"...Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that announced job cuts from US-based employers skyrocketed over the month to the highest October total since 2003 — increasing from 54,064 to 153,074 this past October...."

"...Last month's gain means over 1 million announced cuts so far this year, more than the roughly 761,000 cuts for the entire previous year...."

"..."Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes," Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer, said in the report...."

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"...Ernie Tedeschi, a nonresident senior fellow at The Budget Lab at Yale, recently told Business Insider that companies like Amazon, which announced a reduction of 14,000 corporate workers, are likely correcting for overhiring during the pandemic-era and Great Resignation...."

"...Indeed found job opportunities are the lowest since 2021..."

"...Shrivastava told Business Insider the US is in a precarious, not dangerous situation based on the platform's data...."

"...Job postings trended downward last month, hitting the lowest point since 2021...."

"..."Things have been kind of eroding slowly," Shrivastava said...."

"..."Not a lot of job growth added, still really difficult to break into the labor market, people still really holding onto their jobs."..."

"...It's not just employees sitting still; Shrivastava said employers have mainly been holding onto workers...."

"...Despite new cuts making news, BLS data up to August showed US layoff rates have been low for years — the 2021 to 2025 average of 1.0% is a hair below the 2015 to 2019 average of 1.2%...."

"...Shrivastava said a surge in layoffs would "be kind of the thing that tips the tower over."..."

"...LinkedIn found hiring didn't change much..."

"...Kory Kantenga, the head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, said in a post that October hiring wasn't too far off from September, although it did fall 0.8% and down from the start of the year...."

"...The number of job openings per applicant has also been cooling, and dropped 1% over the month...."

"...Kantenga said in the post that both supply and demand have dropped...."

"..."The job market has been running slow, it's continuing to run slow," Kantenga told Business Insider...."

"..."There just isn't a lot of momentum across the board."..."

"...Kantenga told Business Insider that job seekers need to be open to industries that are still hiring, such as healthcare and construction...."

"..."There are areas where things have actually started to turn around, but they're not yet where they need to be for there to be a lot of opportunities," Kantenga said...."

"..."Technology, information, and media is one."..."

"...Bank of America data showed pay growth varies by household income..."

"...The Bank of America Institute said there was "​​no significant further slowdown in the labor market" last month based on internal data on how many of the bank's customers are getting paychecks...."

"..."While this data does suggest a slowdown in jobs growth has taken place since the summer, it tends to suggest that for now at least, there is no further deceleration," the new report said...."

"...Unemployment payments were up from a year ago, but the report said the growth rate cooled slightly from September...."

"...Across the board, households had higher pay than a year ago, but higher-income households had the highest rise...."

"...Gusto found that small-business hiring has weakened..."

"...Gusto, a payroll and benefits platform for small businesses, found that the hiring rate and quits rate at those businesses cooled in October...."

"...Net hires at small businesses also fell by 5,900, the first drop since January...."

"...Average hourly earnings are also up a little bit from a year ago...."

"..."We're witnessing a significant shift in small business hiring patterns," Andrew Chamberlain, the principal economist at Gusto, said, adding there's essentially no job growth happening compared to the growth during the post-pandemic recovery...."

"..."The culprits are clear: persistently high borrowing costs that keep business loans at 7-15%, ongoing tariff uncertainty that makes planning nearly impossible, and elevated operating expenses across the board," he said...."