Potential Israeli Government Shifts May Offer Limited Relief for Palestinians
Analysts outline three possible outcomes of Israel's recent election, noting that even a new administration is unlikely to resolve the core issues of Palestinian self-determination.
Israel's recent parliamentary election did not involve the roughly 5.5 million Palestinians living in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, whose daily lives are heavily influenced by Israeli policy. While a new coalition could introduce modest improvements, experts say a comprehensive political solution remains distant.
The election campaign largely framed the Palestinian question in security terms, with little discussion of self-determination or living-standard improvements outside the platforms of Palestinian parties. Even left-wing Zionist groups, such as Yair Golan’s HaDemokratim, which secured eight Knesset seats, combine support for a demilitarised Palestinian state with strong Israeli security demands, including unrestricted control over the Jordan Valley.
Three scenarios are outlined. The first envisions a centre-right government led by Gadi Eisenkot, who has called radical settler violence “Jewish terrorism with the backing of the Israeli government.” Under such a cabinet, Israel might release withheld tax revenues that fund the Palestinian Authority, curb settler attacks, and revive parts of the stalled 20-point Gaza plan, though without a broader peace framework.
A second scenario involves a U.S.-backed national unity government that would retain Netanyahu as prime minister but drop far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. This arrangement could modestly reduce settlement expansion and settler violence, mainly to limit international criticism, while offering limited humanitarian relief in Gaza.
The third scenario leaves Netanyahu’s Likud party in a caretaker role until new elections. Depending on whether far-right ministers are dismissed, Israel could either implement minor measures to ease Palestinian conditions or continue an escalation that risks broader conflict.
Across all possibilities, analysts warn that fundamental power dynamics would persist, and only sustained international pressure could move the conflict beyond short-term management.
"The roots of the conflict – the denial of Palestinian self-determination – would remain untouched without international efforts," the analysis concludes.
European policymakers are urged to view any Israeli government change as a continuation of existing dynamics rather than a fresh start for peace negotiations.