New Zealand voters push major parties to historic low as minor parties surge

New Zealand voters gave the two dominant parties a combined 58% of the party vote on election night, the lowest total ever for the major parties. About seven in ten voters skipped both Labour and National, turning instead to smaller parties that promised more transformative policies. The Greens and ACT each achieved their best results to date, New Zealand First recorded its strongest showing since 2002, and Te Pāti Māori secured more seats than expected. Opportunity crossed the 5% threshold for the first time and could become a kingmaker when the final count is completed on 27 November.

Polls had anticipated a razor-thin result that would hinge on special votes cast overseas or outside electorates, and the forecast proved accurate. Labour received 29.3% of the party vote and National 29.2%, leaving both parties with similar support.

Both parties faced criticism for campaign strategies that focused on attacking each other rather than presenting compelling visions. National retained more electorate seats than its party-vote share, creating an overhang that expanded parliament to 131 seats, with six overhang seats for National and five for Te Pāti Māori. The coalition of National, ACT and NZ First held a one-seat majority of 67 seats.

Several hundred thousand special votes remain to be counted. In previous elections, specials have altered seat allocations, but National’s overhang may shield it from losing seats. However, any shift in party-vote percentages for ACT or NZ First, or a loss of a close electorate such as Wairarapa, could erase the narrow margin.

National leader Christopher Luxon addressed the nation at midnight, acknowledging that while his party remained the largest in parliament, the result was too close to call and negotiations would continue after the final count. He also ruled out forming a coalition with Opportunity, a decision that could be revisited if the special votes change the balance.