New Zealand voters punish the two big parties as minor movements surge
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On election night, New Zealand's two entrenched big parties scraped together just over half of the party vote, while smaller parties won record gains and left parliament's final shape hanging on the special votes still to be counted.
New Zealand voters dealt the two dominant parties a combined 58% of the party vote on election night, the lowest total ever recorded for the major parties. Roughly seven in ten voters rejected both Labour and National, turning instead to smaller parties that promised more transformative policies and a break from the stale politics of the status quo. The Greens and ACT each achieved their best results to date, New Zealand First recorded its strongest showing since 2002, and Te Pāti Māori secured more seats than expected. Opportunity crossed the 5% threshold for the first time and could become a kingmaker when the final count is completed on 27 November.
Polls had pointed to a knife-edge result that would depend on special votes cast overseas or outside electorates, and the forecast proved correct. Labour received 29.3% of the party vote and National 29.2%, leaving both parties locked in near-parity and exposing how little enthusiasm either generated.
Both parties faced criticism for campaign strategies that centered on attacking each other instead of offering convincing visions for the country. National retained more electorate seats than its party-vote share would suggest, creating an overhang that expanded parliament to 131 seats, with six overhang seats for National and five for Te Pāti Māori. The coalition of National, ACT and NZ First held a one-seat majority of 67 seats.
Several hundred thousand special votes remain to be counted. In previous elections, special votes have altered seat allocations, but National’s overhang may shield it from losing seats. However, any shift in party-vote percentages for ACT or NZ First, or a loss of a close electorate such as Wairarapa, could erase the narrow margin.
National leader Christopher Luxon addressed the nation at midnight, acknowledging that while his party remained the largest in parliament, the result was too close to call and negotiations would continue after the final count. He also ruled out forming a coalition with Opportunity, a position that could still be revisited if the special votes change the balance.