New Zealand election still hanging in the balance as special votes may blunt National’s lead
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Preliminary counts show the centre-right National party ahead, but the final shape of the next government remains uncertain as special votes are counted and coalition bargaining looms.
Preliminary results of New Zealand's election indicate that the centre-right National party has secured enough seats to form a government with its traditional partners, the Act and New Zealand First parties, but the final outcome remains uncertain pending the count of special votes.
National, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxor, holds 42 seats, while Act and New Zealand First have 13 and 12 respectively, giving the bloc a narrow 67-seat majority. The left-leaning bloc, comprising Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, trails by three seats.
"The results are too close to call and the special votes will need to be counted before negotiations can begin," Luxor told supporters at Auckland’s Viaduct events centre.
Labour, under Chris Hipkins, secured 35 seats, with the Greens winning 16 and Te Pāti Māori five. Hipkins, speaking in Upper Hutt, said the final government formation could take "a bit longer" and pledged that Labour would "get straight to work" if the final count favours it.
Special votes, which include overseas ballots and those cast outside a voter's electorate, represent about 21% of total votes and historically favour left-wing parties. In the 2023 election, they added three seats to the Māori party and the Greens.
The centrist newcomer Opportunity entered parliament for the first time, meeting the 5.9% threshold required under the mixed-member proportional system. Its leader, Qiulae Wong, described the result as "promising" and awaited the final tally.
Under MMP, overhang seats can increase the total number of MPs; National may gain up to five extra seats, while Te Pāti Māori could add five overhang seats, potentially expanding the parliament to a record 130 members.
The special-vote count is due on 27 November, after which coalition negotiations could extend for several weeks. Luxor said caretaker government conventions would apply in the interim, ensuring that routine governmental business continues.