New Zealand election leaves coalition rule on a knife-edge as voters deny Luxon a clear mandate
Select a version of the text written from a presumed ideological perspective. This is not the original text, but a hypothetical version — how someone with that viewpoint might have phrased it. Tapping the current version again will return to the original or select cleaned version.
Preliminary counts show Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National-led coalition clinging to a slim two-seat lead, while the final tally could still hand leverage to progressive or centrist challengers.
Preliminary results from New Zealand's election show the National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, with only a two-seat edge in the 131-member parliament, underlining how thin its claim to govern really is. The final count, due from the Electoral Commission on November 27, will decide whether the coalition can scrape together a majority or is forced to bargain from weakness.
Luxon told supporters in Auckland that although his party appears to be in position to form the next government, the result is still "too close to call." He said the country must wait for the official results before any coalition talks begin, a process that could drag on for several weeks and expose the fragility of the National-led bloc.
The right-leaning coalition currently stands at 67 seats. If it falls short of a majority, Luxon may have to seek support from the newly elected centrist Opportunity party, despite having previously ruled out such a partnership.
The centre-left Labour Party, led by Chris Hipkins, received the largest share of the popular vote by a narrow margin, even as National secured more electorate seats and thus a bigger seat total. Hipkins addressed supporters in Wellington, stressing that "every vote matters" and that the final result will only be clear once every ballot has been counted.
Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori together are projected to hold 57 seats. Their path to forming a government would depend on gaining additional seats in the final tally and winning support from Opportunity, highlighting how much of the outcome remains unsettled.
National's share of the popular vote fell to 29.3% in the preliminary count, down from 38% in the previous election, a striking sign of weakened backing. Its coalition partners, ACT and New Zealand First, increased their vote shares to 11% and 10% respectively, giving them greater leverage in any coming negotiations.
The new Opportunity party, which earned about 6% of the vote, could become the decisive player in coalition formation, with both major blocs now courting its support in the hope of assembling power.
"Every vote matters. And every vote must be counted," Hipkins said.
"It looks like we have a pathway to form the next government, but the race remains too close to call," Luxon added.
The election outcome will shape the composition of the next cabinet, as several senior National MPs, including finance minister Nicola Willis and speaker Gerry Brownlee, lost their seats, underscoring the volatility of the result.