Alaska ballot data shows voting trends as results remain incomplete
Preliminary cast-vote records from about 204,000 Alaska ballots highlight split support in the Senate race, mixed ranking behavior in the governor's contest, and varied voter patterns, but the sample excludes rural precincts and many absentee ballots.
Alaska officials will release additional vote tallies on Monday and Tuesday, leaving the outcomes of the U.S. Senate and governor races uncalled. The Division of Elections has made a "cast vote record" public, covering roughly 204,000 scanned ballots, but the dataset omits votes from rural precincts counted by hand and tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots still pending.
Analysis of the partial data shows that the challenger sharing the name Dan Sullivan, a Petersburg resident, drew most of his support from voters who also favored Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola. About 30,000 Peltola voters ranked the Petersburg Sullivan second, while only around 3,000 of Senator Dan Sullivan’s voters did the same. Charles Stewart, director of the MIT Election Lab, noted a modest level of ballot confusion, with roughly 16% of the challenger’s voters ranking the incumbent senator second and a quarter of the challenger’s supporters ranking Peltola second, suggesting some voters viewed the two as aligned.
In the governor’s race, three Republican candidates urged supporters to rank all three to counter Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Of the 103,000 ballots that placed a Republican first, 56% also ranked the other two Republicans, while the remainder selected only one candidate. Data analyst Burke Croft of Ship Creek Group said the strategy appears to have resonated but cautioned that its impact on the final result is still uncertain.
The record also allows a granular view of individual voting behavior. While many voters followed expected partisan patterns, some deviated—for example, a voter in Willow ranked a conservative longshot candidate first, Peltola second, and the incumbent senator third. Additionally, voters who supported repealing ranked-choice voting were more likely to rank three or more candidates in the governor’s race (58%) compared with those who favored keeping the system (22%).
Because the current sample excludes a significant portion of the electorate, especially from remote areas, analysts stress that the final outcomes could shift once all ballots are counted.