Anthropic IPO valuation discussions fall to $1.1-$1.3 trillion amid market volatility
Potential investors are reassessing Anthropic's IPO price, now considering a valuation between $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion after a sharp drop in tech stocks.
Prospective buyers of Anthropic PBC's initial public offering are now debating a valuation range of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some suggesting as low as $1.1 trillion, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The shift follows a 6.4% plunge in the Nasdaq 100, which erased $2.3 trillion in market value in a single day.
Earlier estimates placed a fair valuation at $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion, but the recent market turbulence has prompted a reassessment. A spokesperson for Anthropic declined to comment on the ongoing talks.
The volatile environment for technology stocks has already reduced expectations for what would be the first IPO by a frontier AI model maker. In early October, investors had floated a valuation as high as $2 trillion, which later fell to the $1.4-$1.5 trillion range after a company briefing on its financials.
Analysts note that the Democratic sweep of Congress could increase regulatory scrutiny of data-center expansion, adding to market uncertainty. The Cboe Volatility Index reached its highest level since April 2025, further complicating investor sentiment.
Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc, said a valuation near $1 trillion might be more comfortable given current conditions. > "I don’t think we need the headline ‘oh my god, it is a trillion dollar IPO,’ because I think what’s actually more important is the secondary," Kettner told Bloomberg Radio.
Anthropic may begin formal marketing with a conservative size and valuation target, adjusting upward if investor response is strong, a pattern seen with recent IPOs such as Cerebras Systems Inc. and Figma Inc. However, both companies are now trading below their IPO prices.
Delaying the offering is another option, though it could extend the period before the company can begin formal marketing and may affect the perception of the IPO. Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, said the firm might accept a lower valuation rather than risk a prolonged delay. > "The cost both physically and reputationally of delaying the IPO that might hurt the valuation more in the longer term, whereas if markets hold up at the level that they are, they’ll just get it done at a slightly lower valuation, suck it up and move on," Field said.