Analysis indicates Mary Peltola is on track to win Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting
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An independent look at Alaska’s ranked-choice data suggests Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is likely to secure a majority after votes are reallocated, despite attempts to cast confusion around similarly named candidates as a reason to override the system.
An independent analysis of Alaska’s ranked-choice voting data indicates that Democratic challenger Mary Peltola is positioned to win the Senate race after the elimination of the similarly named Daniel J. Sullivan. The review found that most of Daniel J. Sullivan’s voters listed Peltola as their second choice, meaning their votes will transfer to her once his candidacy is removed from the count.
President Donald Trump has argued that the presence of two candidates named Dan Sullivan could mislead voters and has urged that all votes for Daniel J. Sullivan – as well as those for a fourth Senate candidate – be awarded to incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. Legal experts note that the proposal has no established legal basis and appears to be a transparent attempt to bend the rules when the numbers are moving the other way.
Both campaigns continue to project victory once all ballots, including early-in-person and absentee votes, are tallied. Peltola’s campaign manager Cheryl Bruce said, "The numbers are clear: when every vote is counted, Mary Peltola will be elected as Alaska’s next United States Senator." The Sullivan campaign maintains that the remaining uncounted votes favor the incumbent, stating that he needs about 49.5% of the two-way vote in the outstanding ballots.
As of Friday, Peltola led the initial count by roughly 600 votes, holding 48.2% of the total. Early-in-person and mail ballots counted to date show her winning about 56.6% of each category, a trend the campaign expects to continue. Alaska’s vote-counting process is extended due to the state’s size and weather conditions, with mail ballots accepted up to ten days after Election Day if postmarked by that date.