One Nation gains traction as Labor vote slips in Melbourne’s western suburbs
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Labor’s support has fallen sharply in several western Melbourne seats, prompting concerns that voters may turn to One Nation or the Liberals in the upcoming state election.
Labor’s primary vote in Melbourne’s north-west suburbs has dropped sharply since the 2022 state election, raising the prospect that traditionally safe seats could be lost to opposition parties. In the seat of Sydenham, the Labor primary vote fell 17.8% and the two-party-preferred vote slipped below 60% for the first time in three decades. Similar declines were recorded in St Albans, Greenvale and Yan Yean, where Labor’s primary vote fell by 18.4%, 15% and 11.3% respectively on a two-party-preferred basis.
The sitting member for Sydenham, Natalie Hutchins, is retiring and her successor, Uros Rasic, has been campaigning since December. Labor is allocating additional resources to defend the area, but former Labor strategist Kos Samaras, now a pollster with Redbridge, said the party “clearly ignored” the concerns of working-class voters after the Covid lockdowns and did not anticipate the appeal of One Nation. “They banked it, they thought that ‘it doesn’t matter how much we absorb out there, it doesn’t go to the Liberal party’. They just didn’t factor in that One Nation will be around to provide these people a home,” Samaras said.
Local business owners highlighted cost-of-living pressures as a key issue. Jenny, who runs an Asian grocery store in St Albans, noted that high interest rates are forcing customers to cut back on food purchases. She expressed confidence that incumbent Labor MP Natalie Suleyman will retain the seat, citing her visibility in the community.
Other residents voiced concerns about crime, drug use and illegal tobacco trade, with some supporting One Nation’s and the Liberal Party’s promises to cut cigarette taxes at the federal level. Shyam Padala, a resident of Melton, argued that promises to build a hospital and electrify the train line have not been fulfilled, describing the area as “completely forgotten by Labor”.
A younger commentator, TJ, a YouTuber from St Albans, said the perception of One Nation’s leader has shifted and that voters are seeking “a fresh face” as they feel squeezed by rising costs. He acknowledged Labor’s infrastructure achievements but argued they are insufficient to address current economic pressures.
The upcoming election will test whether the swing away from Labor translates into seats for One Nation or the Liberals in Melbourne’s western suburbs.