Asia Braces for Disruption as Trump’s Post-Midterm Weakness Leaves U.S. Policy in Turmoil
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Analysts say President Donald Trump’s weakened standing after the November midterms will narrow his leverage, yet his erratic approach is likely to keep U.S. policy toward Asia volatile, especially on trade, energy and security issues.
President Donald Trump is set to host the G-20 leaders’ summit on Dec. 14-15 after a scheduled visit to Manila for the ASEAN summit and a two-day APEC forum in Shenzhen, where he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping for a third time this year. The agenda comes as Democrats prepare to control both houses of Congress following the November 3 midterm elections, raising questions about how the new opposition will constrain a White House already driven by unpredictability and brinkmanship in U.S. policy toward Asia.
"I would be very surprised if President Trump takes a reconciliatory turn in his politics," said Joseph Chinyong Liow, dean and professor of East Asian Affairs at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. "More likely he will double down to assert his presidential authority over both chambers."
For export-driven Asian economies, the main concern remains the tariff regime introduced early in Trump’s term, a blunt tool that has punished trade and deepened uncertainty. While Democratic leaders have pledged to repeal tariffs on Canadian goods, any repeal would require a two-thirds congressional vote to override a possible presidential veto, underscoring how hard it will be to undo the damage.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said the midterm results are unlikely to affect oil prices in the short term, noting that price movements will depend on diplomatic and military developments between the United States and Iran. He added that a longer-term rise in oil prices could occur if Democrats roll back Trump-era energy policies that expanded drilling and reduced environmental oversight.
U.S. economist Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, expects the new Democratic Congress to adopt a firm stance on China, using the Biden administration’s restrictive export policies as a template. He warned that Trump’s "constructive strategic stability" framing could come under attack as Congress pushes back against rhetoric that masks confrontation.
Han Shen Lin, managing director for The Asia Group in Shanghai, said the Republican setback will curb Trump’s negotiating leverage but that strategic concerns over China remain bipartisan. "Policy recalibrations: yes. Fundamental change: no," he said, adding that technology restrictions on semiconductors and AI are unlikely to ease.
Frederick Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council, cautioned that Beijing might view the next two years as an opportunity to increase regional activity, including military probes around Taiwan, in response to Trump’s willingness to delay weapon deliveries.
Overall, experts agree that while Trump’s ability to shape trade and security policy may be constrained, the United States will continue to present an unstable and unpredictable partner for Asian nations in the coming years.