Netanyahu's bloc falls short as President Herzog begins coalition talks

President Isaac Herzog is set to meet leaders of all parties elected to Israel's 26th Knesset to decide which lawmaker will be tasked with forming the next government. Netanyahu's Likud bloc won 53 seats, while the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot secured 48 seats; a coalition requires at least 61 seats.

Netanyahu posted on X that the public does not want a government dependent on Ra'am and the Joint List, which he described as parties that support terrorism and reject the Jewish state. He added that a clear majority chose Likud and him to lead, and that he is open to discussions with any party that does not support terrorism.

A source from the Joint List indicated the alliance may endorse Eisenkot as the first lawmaker tasked with forming a government. If both Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, back him, Eisenkot could receive recommendations from parties representing more than the required 61 seats.

Herzog will hold consultations in order of seat count, beginning with Religious Zionism-Zehut and Shas (six seats each), followed by Yisrael Beiteinu (seven seats), United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit (seven each), The Democrats and Ra'am (eight each), the Joint List (11), BeYachad (12), Yashar (21) and Likud (27). The appointed lawmaker will have 28 days, extendable by up to 14 days, to assemble a coalition.

Commentator Amir Oren noted that Herzog is likely to select the candidate backed by a majority of Knesset seats, suggesting Eisenkot will receive the first mandate. Oren warned that if Eisenkot fails, the mandate would return to the president.

Analysts said Eisenkot may face difficulty forming a 61-seat coalition because leaders of BeYachad and Yisrael Beiteinu have expressed reluctance to join a government that includes the Joint List, given its pro-Palestinian stance. A minority government with external Arab support remains a theoretical option, though Israel has no precedent for a post-election minority cabinet.

Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit and Shas have indicated they will recommend Netanyahu during the consultations. Dan Diker of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs said recent endorsements of Eisenkot by Bennett and Liberman suggest a shift away from a national unity government.

The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on Nov. 10, after which its members will begin committee work while the current government continues in a caretaker role.

"I think it would behoove Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Bennett and former Defense Minister Liberman to find a way to work together now, given the imminent clash between the Iranian regime, Israel and, by extension, the rest of the Western world," said Dan Diker.

"They are doing everything they can to push Netanyahu out of office, and we are seeing that now with discussions about replacing the Knesset speaker," added Diker.

"As a first step, Eisenkot may approach Likud and ask it to join a government under his leadership, which Likud will reject," said former Knesset member Dov Lipman.

"Eisenkot will likely fail to form a government, after which the mandate will pass to Netanyahu, who will also likely fail," Lipman added.

Prof. Gideon Rahat of the Israel Democracy Institute suggested that a national unity arrangement similar to the 1984-1988 government could be considered, but noted it would require concessions on judicial reforms and mechanisms for leadership transition.