Brent falls below $105 as US-Iran talks stir oil market volatility
Oil prices slipped after reports of US-Iran peace talks were followed by Tehran's denial, while geopolitical tensions and supply moves added further pressure.
Brent crude slipped below $105 per barrel on Thursday, reacting to a wave of headlines about Qatar-mediated talks between the United States and Iran that were later dismissed by Tehran. The price drop marked one of the sharpest daily declines in recent months.
The flattening of the forward curve on Dubai benchmarks, where the cash-to-futures spread narrowed, suggests that Asian differentials may ease soon. Freight rates from the Gulf of Oman to China fell to about $17 per barrel, roughly $6 lower than a month earlier, while Gulf-region freight remains high.
Market analysts noted that the oversupply in the prompt market kept Brent CFDs in contango for November, with backwardation expected to return from December. Global crude on water rose to 1.3 billion barrels, an increase of about 50 million barrels in two weeks, driven largely by Middle Eastern exporters positioning cargoes ahead of possible renewed hostilities.
"The ongoing US-Iran negotiations have given the market a bearish impetus," said a senior oil market commentator, noting that the talks, despite Tehran’s criticism of the White House as ‘unconvincing’, have contributed to the price decline.
In related developments, TotalEnergies secured a 30% operated interest in Malaysia’s Lang Lebah and B14 offshore gas fields, while ExxonMobil increased its stake in Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG project to 50% after a swap with ENI. BP’s chief executive Meg O’Neill denied rumours of a corporate breakup, emphasizing the company’s integrated structure.
OPEC+ members rolled over November production quotas into December, maintaining a target of 31.01 million barrels per day despite actual output running below target. Russia extended its diesel export ban to January 2027, exempting shipments to the United States and other key buyers.
Other regional updates included Iran’s warning to South Korean shipper Sinokor over Hormuz transits, Saudi Aramco’s 9% year-on-year profit rise despite a quarterly dip, and Saudi Arabia’s plan to expand its East-West pipeline capacity to 10 million barrels per day by 2029.