Election analyst forecasts major Republican losses in 2026 midterms
Veteran forecaster Charlie Cook predicts Democrats will gain a sizable majority in both chambers, citing polling trends and voter sentiment.
Veteran election analyst Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, told The New Republic that the 2026 midterm elections could deliver a severe setback for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. He said the political environment facing Republicans is "more than a beating" and described it as the worst electoral conditions for the party in at least a generation.
Cook projects Democrats will win at least 230 House seats and gain five or more Senate seats, giving them a 52-seat majority and possibly more. The forecast reflects recent polls that show Democrats holding a nine-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot and leading in several traditionally Republican states, including Texas, South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.
The analyst highlighted specific Senate races where Democratic candidates are ahead, such as James Talarico’s lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, and expressed concern about the vulnerability of several GOP senators. He also warned that Republican voter turnout may be weak, while turnout among Black voters, especially in the South, could be high.
Cook cautioned that the anticipated Republican defeat reflects voter frustration with President Trump and party members who have supported him, rather than a broad endorsement of Democratic policies. He characterized the mood as a "red undertow" rather than a sweeping "blue wave."