Final polls show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate race
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Recent surveys indicate Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has a polling edge over Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race, although the margins vary and several results sit within the usual error range.
Recent polling ahead of the midterm elections suggests Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a lead over Republican Mike Rogers for Michigan’s Senate seat, though the numbers should be read with caution given how sharply they vary from one survey to another. The size of the advantage differs across polls, ranging from an 11-point lead in a New York Times/Siena poll to a one-point edge in an Insider Advantage poll, with several results falling within their respective margins of error.
The Poll Vault/Emerson survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 1 reported 51% support for El-Sayed and 45% for Rogers, while an AtlasIntel poll from Oct. 28-Nov. 1 showed 54% to 46%. A YouGov poll (Oct. 26-29) gave El-Sayed 51% and Rogers 47%, and a CNN poll (Oct. 20-27) recorded 49% for El-Sayed and 42% for Rogers. An earlier Marist poll (Oct. 15-18) had the candidates at 50% and 48% respectively. RealClearPolitics’ average of the listed surveys indicates a 5.3-point lead for El-Sayed.
Prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi assign El-Sayed an 81% probability of winning, while political analysts rate the race as leaning Democratic: the Cook Political Report lists it as “Lean Democrat,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball as “Leans Democratic,” and Inside Elections as “Tilt Democratic.”
Michigan’s two Senate seats are pivotal to the balance of power in Congress, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. A Democratic win would help the party maintain its position, whereas a Republican victory would extend the GOP’s margin.
"El-Sayed led in all recent surveys, though the size of his advantage varied considerably between pollsters," the article notes.
The final polls suggest El-Sayed enters Election Day with a lead, but the variation among surveys means the contest remains competitive and far from settled.