Border-state Senate races focus on U.S.–Canada trade dispute
Midterm Senate contests in Michigan, Maine and other border states are being shaped by the ongoing trade conflict with Canada and related economic concerns.
U.S. voters in seven states that share a border with Canada will choose new senators on Tuesday, with the trade dispute between Washington and Ottawa playing a central role in campaign narratives. In Michigan, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is challenging Republican former congressman Mike Rogers. El-Sayed linked high gasoline and grocery prices to the Iran conflict and to what he described as "insane tariffs" on Canada, while Rogers said in a campaign ad that "Canada is not our enemy" and called for an end to the trade war.
Polls show a tightening race. A Fox News-commissioned Beacon Research and Shaw & Company poll in September gave El-Sayed a one-point edge, a Marist University poll showed a two-point lead, while later CNN/SSRS and New York Times/Siena surveys indicated leads of seven and 11 points respectively. The Democratic campaign faced internal friction after Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who lost the primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Rogers, citing a desire to oppose hate.
In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson debated the impact of tariffs on Canadian imports. Collins noted a recent exemption for road salt, whereas Jackson argued that broader tariffs have hurt the state's lumber, fishing and tourism sectors. Recent polling gives Jackson a modest advantage, though Collins has a history of outperforming poll predictions.
Alaska’s race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan has narrowed, with the latest New York Times/Siena poll showing a one-point margin. Allegations of a ballot-stacking scheme involving a similarly named candidate have prompted statements from President Donald Trump on social media and an inquiry ordered by Governor Mike Dunleavy.
Other border-state contests include Idaho, where Republican incumbent Jim Risch faces independent veteran Todd Achilles, and Montana, where Republican Kurt Alme leads a three-candidate field that includes Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas maintains a double-digit lead over Republican John Sununu, who has President Trump’s endorsement. Minnesota’s lieutenant governor Peggy Flannigan also holds a polling advantage over Republican commentator Michele Tafoya, though the exact margin varies across surveys.