Economic pain and market gains collide as voter frustration builds ahead of 2025 midterms
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Data on inflation, wages, energy costs, mortgage rates, home prices and stock market performance reveal a sharply uneven economy that is shaping voter anger and anxiety as Americans head to the polls.
Americans will go to the ballot box and measure their own lives against the promises they have heard, asking whether they are better off than two years ago, according to a recent NBC News Decision Desk poll that found the economy to be the top issue for voters. The poll also showed that a majority of respondents are dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.
Inflation has risen faster than wages over the past six months, squeezing working families while official figures offer little comfort. In September, consumer-price growth reached 3.7% while wages increased 3% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Energy costs have pushed consumer prices even higher, hitting households at the gas pump and in the grocery aisle. Regular gasoline averaged $3.12 per gallon at the start of Trump’s second term and $2.98 before the conflict with Iran; prices have now moved above $4 per gallon. Diesel prices, which weigh heavily on transportation and agriculture, have risen from $3.63 per gallon at the beginning of the term to over $6 per gallon.
Mortgage rates have climbed as well, deepening the affordability crisis. The 30-year fixed rate, which fell below 6% before the Iran conflict, is now above 7%, and the 15-year fixed rate has exceeded 6%, according to Freddie Mac. Home prices have risen 57% since January 2020, with the average single-family home costing $422,700 in September, based on National Association of Realtors data. While homeowners collectively hold more than $35 trillion in real-estate equity, many prospective buyers are effectively locked out of the market.
Equity markets have performed strongly, but those gains have not been shared evenly across the country. The S&P 500 index is up more than 26% during Trump’s second term, buoyed by corporate earnings and spending on artificial-intelligence technologies. The market experienced declines after the administration announced new tariffs in 2025 and during the early weeks of the Iran conflict.
"Are you better off than you were four years ago?" – Ronald Reagan
These economic trends are expected to shape voter decisions in the upcoming midterm elections, as frustration with costs and inequality collides with Wall Street optimism.