Economic indicators shape voter sentiment ahead of 2025 midterms
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Data on inflation, wages, energy costs, mortgage rates, home prices and stock market performance show mixed economic trends that are influencing voters as they head to the polls.
Americans will assess their personal finances on Election Day, judging whether they are better off than two years ago, according to a recent NBC News Decision Desk poll that found the economy to be the top issue for voters. The poll also indicated that a majority of respondents express dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.
Inflation has risen faster than wages over the past six months. In September, consumer-price growth reached 3.7% while wages increased 3% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Energy costs have contributed to higher consumer prices. Regular gasoline averaged $3.12 per gallon at the start of Trump’s second term and $2.98 before the conflict with Iran; prices have now moved above $4 per gallon. Diesel prices, which affect transportation and agriculture, have risen from $3.63 per gallon at the beginning of the term to over $6 per gallon.
Mortgage rates have climbed as well. The 30-year fixed rate, which fell below 6% before the Iran conflict, is now above 7%, and the 15-year fixed rate has exceeded 6%, according to Freddie Mac. Home prices have risen 57% since January 2020, with the average single-family home costing $422,700 in September, based on National Association of Realtors data. While homeowners collectively hold more than $35 trillion in real-estate equity, many prospective buyers find the market unaffordable.
Equity markets have performed strongly; the S&P 500 index is up more than 26% during Trump’s second term, buoyed by corporate earnings and spending on artificial-intelligence technologies. The market experienced declines after the administration announced new tariffs in 2025 and during the early weeks of the Iran conflict.
"Are you better off than you were four years ago?" – Ronald Reagan
These economic trends are expected to influence voter decisions in the upcoming midterm elections.