Victoria's 2022 voting patterns hint at shifting fortunes for Labor, Liberals and One Nation ahead of state election
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Analysis of 2022 polling-booth results shows Labor losing ground in its traditional northern suburbs, One Nation gaining support in regional areas, and the Liberal Party targeting both blue-ribbon and western seats for the November 28 state election.
Victoria’s political landscape has changed markedly since the 2022 state election, when Labor secured a large victory and Jess Wilson entered parliament as a first-term Liberal member. Recent polling-booth data compiled by The Age suggest that Labor’s support in its northern heartland has eroded, with two-party-preferred swings of 11-15 percentage points toward the Liberals in seats such as Thomastown, Mill Park, Broadmeadows and Greenvale. At Greenvale’s Bethal Primary School booth, incumbent Labor candidate Iwan Walters experienced a 33.2-point swing against him, benefitting the Liberal candidate and several minor-party contenders.
One Nation, which received only 0.22 % of the statewide primary vote in 2022, showed localized strength in regional electorates. In Morwell, the party captured 6.1 % of the vote, and at the Traralgon South Community Hall it received 8.4 %, reflecting growing appeal among older, non-university-educated voters in disadvantaged areas.
The Liberal Party also made inroads in traditionally affluent “blue-ribbon” seats. Jess Wilson retained Kew, but the party’s primary vote fell by five points. At the Canterbury Girls Secondary College booth, Wilson’s share dropped to 44.6 % while independent candidate Sophie Torney, backed by Climate 200, secured 25 %.
In Melbourne’s western suburbs, where Labor has historically performed well, the 2022 results indicated a shift toward the Liberals and independents. In Sydenham, Labor’s primary vote fell by 20.9 % compared with 2018, prompting speculation that the seat could be contested by conservative parties this year.
The analysis underscores three trends that could shape the November 28 election: weakening Labor support in its northern base, rising regional backing for One Nation, and the Liberal Party’s focus on both affluent and western electorates.