Democrats Rely on Polls While Voters and Reality Could Still Humble Them at the Midterms
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Democrats are heading into the midterm elections brimming with confidence from friendly polling, yet the same polling industry that keeps boosting them has a long record of missing the voters who actually show up.
The Democratic Party is entering the midterm elections with high hopes, propped up by favorable polling and the historic unpopularity of the Republican president. Polls show Democratic candidates leading in many races, fueling claims that they could take the House of Representatives and do well in crucial Senate contests.
Still, those polls deserve heavy skepticism. Time and again, polling has failed to predict results accurately, especially in recent elections where Donald Trump beat expectations. Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, acknowledged that reaching voters has become increasingly difficult, because many Americans are less willing to take surveys, particularly those on the far right who may feel shut out by the political system.
That means polling mistakes could badly skew the picture, possibly missing Republican voters and distorting the forecasts. Although midterm polling has generally been more accurate in recent years, this election comes with unusual variables, including Trump's absence from the ballot and the chance that many voters will make up their minds very late.
Despite the Democrats' current polling edge, a number of factors could undercut them, including firmer party loyalty, changes in district lines, and a major money advantage for Republicans in campaign spending. Historically, the party of the sitting president often runs into trouble in midterm elections, as in 2010 when Republicans scored big gains.
With the election approaching, voter sentiment could still shift at the last minute, and both parties are preparing for a fiercely contested race.