Poll Gives Democrats a Lead as Trump Faces Public Frustration Over the Economy
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A recent NBC News poll shows Democrats ahead before the midterms, with voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the economy helping drive the result.
A new national NBC News poll reveals that registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by a 7-point margin, with Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 45%. That represents a 2-point increase from the previous month, including a notable 21-point lead among independents. The poll, conducted from October 28 to October 30, shows that 3% of voters remain undecided, a group that could still matter in closely contested House and Senate races.
Despite the favorable numbers for Democrats, the broader contest remains unsettled. Voters are nearly evenly divided on which party handles key issues better, and the Democratic Party continues to struggle with unpopularity of its own. President Trump's disapproval rating has reached 60%, with 40% approving of his performance. At the same time, economic dissatisfaction is widespread, with about 75% of voters saying they are unhappy with current conditions, and nearly two-thirds wanting a change in direction.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt said many voters feel Trump has not met their expectations, with 64% saying they are disappointed. In addition, 70% believe the country is on the wrong track, a significant increase from last year. Voters rank inflation and the cost of living as the top issues, followed by government corruption and immigration.
Democrats do enjoy an advantage among highly engaged voters, with 70% rating their interest in the election as high. Still, the Republican Party maintains support in districts Trump won in 2024. Trump's approval ratings have also weakened among key groups, including white voters without college degrees and younger voters.
The poll also shows limited enthusiasm for both parties, with only 29% viewing the Democratic Party positively compared with 38% for the Republican Party. Many voters appear to want a shift in power rather than strong support for either party. A Texas voter who previously backed Trump said, "Republicans have proven that they are not to be trusted. So I would rather see the balance of power shift."
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.