Democrats lead polls as early voting hits record levels ahead of US midterms
National polls show Democrats ahead of Republicans by about eight points, while more than 43 million Americans have already cast early ballots, a surge of nearly 10 million compared with 2022.
With three days left before the midterm elections, national polling continues to show Democrats ahead of Republicans by roughly eight percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics’ congressional ballot average. The survey puts Democrats at 51.4 % and Republicans at 43.2 %.
A separate Economist/YouGov poll found that 44 % of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House, versus 31 % for Republicans, while expectations for the Senate are closer, with 39 % favoring a Democratic majority and 36 % a Republican one. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said the strong House lead “suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats,” but added that the Senate outcome remains “much more up in the air.”
Early voting has surged, with an Associated Press analysis reporting more than 43 million Americans having voted in person or by mail five days before Election Day—nearly 10 million more than at the same point in 2022. Texas recorded over 6.3 million early votes, a 50 % increase from the previous cycle, while Georgia surpassed its 2022 early-vote total with more than 2.5 million ballots. In Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, early turnout rose by more than 30 %.
President Donald Trump reversed a prior decision to cancel weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa, confirming that both events will proceed on Sunday. His campaign team described the appearances as a way to mobilise Republican voters, especially in states with competitive Senate races. Trump also addressed a rally in Florida, urging voters to turn out and warning against overconfidence.
On the Democratic side, former President Bill Clinton campaigned in Mississippi, urging turnout and highlighting the impact of voting on local communities. Democratic strategist Celinda Lake noted that many voters are seeking change, describing their motivation as a “Hail Mary for change.”
The weekend will see Trump holding back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas, supporting Senate candidates Ashley Hinson and Senator Roger Marshall, respectively. In Alaska, Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola is slated to appear at a rally in Bethel, while Republican Senate races in Kansas and other states remain tightly contested.