Midterm elections test the future of Trumpism and Republican dominance

The November 5 midterm elections are being framed as a de facto referendum on President Donald Trump, even though his name does not appear on the ballot. At a Republican convention in September, Trump urged supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot, just one more time," a message that appears to be resonating with voters, according to recent polling.

An aggregate of more than 1,000 polls compiled by the New York Times shows Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent, the lowest point of his second term. Emma Shortis, director of international and security affairs at the Australia Institute, told SBS News that "Trump has made the midterms a referendum on himself." Jared Mondschein, director of research at the United States Studies Centre, warned that the president’s declining popularity could hurt the Republican Party’s chances of retaining a congressional majority.

Beyond the immediate battle for control of the House and Senate, experts say the elections will indicate whether the Republican Party can move beyond the personalist brand known as Trumpism. Shortis noted that predictions of a split between Trump and the party have not materialised, adding, "I'm not sure that's true." Mondschein agreed that Trump’s grip on the party is strong but may be temporary, saying, "Donald Trump is the one that [the party] have to pledge allegiance to in many ways, and so they will until they no longer need to. But I think that era is coming sooner rather than later."

The analysis highlights that Trumpism is tied more to the president’s personal appeal than to a coherent ideology. Mondschein observed, "There really is not something that unites the MAGA voting population more than just Donald Trump himself," and suggested that future candidates may struggle to replicate his style.

The midterms could also signal which Republican candidates are most viable. Mondschein pointed out that many Trump-endorsed candidates performed poorly in 2022, while moderate Republicans fared better, indicating that a Trump-centric approach may not guarantee electoral success.

Looking ahead, the party will need to identify a successor before the 2028 election, with Vice President JD Vance, former Senator Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump Jr. mentioned as possible contenders. However, Shortis warned that Trump has shown little interest in naming a successor, and party members may avoid challenging him for fear of retaliation. When asked about endorsing Vance, Trump replied, "It's early, very early right now. We have to get through the midterms."

Observers caution that broader economic and geopolitical issues will continue to shape conservatism regardless of the election outcome, and that the next Republican leader will have to address these challenges while navigating the legacy of Trumpism.