Midterms expose the fragility of Trumpism and the GOP’s dependence on a personality cult
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Analysts say the 2025 U.S. midterms will show whether Republicans can survive without President Donald Trump’s personal brand and whether Trumpism can evolve beyond loyalty to one man.
The November 5 midterm elections are being cast as a de facto referendum on President Donald Trump, even though his name does not appear on the ballot. At a Republican convention in September, Trump urged supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot, just one more time,” a message that appears to be working with voters, according to recent polling.
An aggregate of more than 1,000 polls compiled by the New York Times shows Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent, the lowest point of his second term. Emma Shortis, director of international and security affairs at the Australia Institute, told SBS News that “Trump has made the midterms a referendum on himself.” Jared Mondschein, director of research at the United States Studies Centre, warned that the president’s falling popularity could damage the Republican Party’s chances of holding on to congressional power.
Beyond the immediate fight for control of the House and Senate, experts say the elections will reveal whether the Republican Party can move beyond the personalist brand known as Trumpism. Shortis noted that predictions of a split between Trump and the party have not materialised, adding, “I’m not sure that’s true.” Mondschein agreed that Trump’s hold over the party remains strong but may not last forever, saying, “Donald Trump is the one that [the party] have to pledge allegiance to in many ways, and so they will until they no longer need to. But I think that era is coming sooner rather than later.”
The analysis suggests that Trumpism is tied more to the president’s personal appeal than to any coherent ideology. Mondschein observed, “There really is not something that unites the MAGA voting population more than just Donald Trump himself,” and said future candidates may struggle to copy his style or command the same devotion.
The midterms could also show which Republican candidates are actually viable. Mondschein pointed out that many Trump-endorsed candidates performed poorly in 2022, while moderate Republicans did better, suggesting that a Trump-centered strategy may not guarantee electoral success.
Looking ahead, the party will need to identify a successor before the 2028 election, with Vice President JD Vance, former Senator Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump Jr. mentioned as possible contenders. However, Shortis warned that Trump has shown little interest in naming a successor, and party members may avoid challenging him for fear of retaliation. When asked about endorsing Vance, Trump replied, “It’s early, very early right now. We have to get through the midterms.”
Observers caution that broader economic and geopolitical issues will continue to shape conservatism regardless of the election outcome, and that the next Republican leader will have to confront those challenges while carrying the weight of Trumpism’s legacy.