Cook Political Report shifts 14 midterm races, boosting Democratic prospects
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The Cook Political Report adjusted its outlook for 14 House and Senate contests, moving several races toward Democrats and suggesting the party could secure a House majority.
The Cook Political Report updated its projections on Oct. 30, moving 14 congressional races toward the Democratic Party as the midterm elections approach. The revisions indicate that Democrats could flip between 12 and 25 House seats, potentially giving them a majority of up to 240 seats if they also win all 18 toss-up contests. A Democratic majority requires at least 218 seats.
Among the changes, Pennsylvania’s 1st District, which includes Bucks County outside Philadelphia, shifted from a "lean Republican" rating to a toss-up. The district was carried by President Donald Trump in 2024 and 2016 but was narrowly lost to former President Joe Biden in 2020. South Carolina’s 1st District, covering coastal areas near Charleston, and Colorado’s 5th District, encompassing Colorado Springs, also moved from "lean Republican" toward toss-up status.
Additionally, Ohio’s 9th District and Pennsylvania’s 8th District, both previously classified as toss-ups, were upgraded to "lean Democrat." These districts have historically been viewed as indicators of Trump’s support among white blue-collar voters.
Both parties have framed the upcoming midterms as a referendum on President Trump’s administration, which has seen declining approval ratings amid ongoing international conflicts and economic pressures.