Israel's fragmented Knesset leaves Netanyahu and Eisenkot vying for coalition partners
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Netanyahu's Likud bloc holds 53 seats while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's grouping has 48, making Arab-led parties and ultra-Orthodox factions pivotal in forming the next Israeli government.
Israel's latest parliamentary election produced a divided 120-member Knesset, giving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the largest party but no clear majority. Likud secured 27 seats, and the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot won 21, leaving Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with 53 seats and Eisenkot's coalition with 48.
Both sides fall short of the 61 seats needed to govern, placing the 19 seats held by Arab-led parties and the 13 seats of ultra-Orthodox parties at the centre of coalition talks. Analysts outline five possible outcomes. The most direct route for Eisenkot would be to incorporate the Joint List (11 seats) and Ra’am (8 seats), which would bring his bloc to 67 seats. A survey cited by The Jerusalem Post indicated that 61% of opposition voters support such an arrangement, though Eisenkot has previously ruled out a government that includes Arab parties.
Another scenario envisions Eisenkot forming a minority government that relies on outside support from Arab parties, a model the Joint List has said it would consider, while Ra’am’s leader Mansour Abbas has expressed doubt about its feasibility. A third option is a national unity government that would combine Likud, Eisenkot’s alliance, and right-wing parties such as Bennett’s B’Yachad and Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, also reaching 67 seats without Arab participation. This would require both leaders to abandon campaign pledges, as Eisenkot has stated he will not serve under Netanyahu.
The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, together holding 13 seats, could also tip the balance in Eisenkot’s favour if they join a coalition, but their demand to maintain exemption from compulsory military service conflicts with Eisenkot’s call for broader conscription.
If negotiations fail, a new election may be called, potentially as early as next year, extending the period of political uncertainty. The formal government-formation process will begin after President Isaac Herzog receives the certified results and assigns a candidate to build a coalition, with an initial 28-day deadline that can be extended by 14 days. The Knesset is slated to be sworn in on November 10.
The outcome will hinge on whether Arab-led parties join a coalition, support a minority government from outside, or remain excluded, as well as on the stance of ultra-Orthodox factions regarding military service.