Early voting tops 43 million as turnout surges in key battlegrounds
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More than 43 million Americans have already voted early ahead of the midterm elections, with Texas leading the way and Hispanic turnout surging in several states as voters appear increasingly engaged in a contest over the future direction of the country under Donald Trump's presidency.
With less than a week left before the U.S. midterm elections, the University of Florida Election Lab reports that over 43 million early ballots have been cast, averaging four to five million votes per day — a rate higher than in most prior contests and a sign that Americans are showing up in force. Texas shows the strongest early turnout, having already exceeded its 2022 total by about 1.75 million votes, according to Professor Mike McDonald, who manages the Election Lab database. The state has recorded more than 5.8 million early ballots, positioning it as a pivotal battleground for control of the Senate during Donald Trump's presidency.
Early voting also appears elevated among voters who did not register with a party, though the data does not reveal their candidate preferences. Across the roughly half of states that require party affiliation, 44% of early votes are attributed to Democrats, 31.2% to Republicans and 24.7% to unaffiliated voters. In the three states that collect race information — North Carolina, Georgia and Florida — early ballots from Hispanic and Black voters have risen, while white voter participation remains similar to 2022 levels. McDonald said the pattern is not surprising given that communities of colour are more frequently part of the Democratic coalition, while white voters are more frequently aligned with the Republican coalition.
"That makes sense because communities of colour are more frequently part of the Democratic coalition, and whites are more frequently part of the Republican coalition," McDonald said.
Texas does not collect party or race data, yet counties along the Mexico border, where Hispanic residents exceed 90%, are projected to outpace their 2022 early-vote totals. That suggests these areas are turning out at a rapid clip and could play a major role in determining the outcome.
"When I look at those counties, what I see is some of them are going to beat their 2022 turnout in just the early vote alone," McDonald added.
In the 2020 election, more than two-thirds of all ballots were cast early, half of them by mail. McDonald suggests concerns about postal voting may be influencing the current surge, though he notes there is no concrete evidence linking the rise to specific factors. He cautions that mail ballots face higher disqualification rates due to errors and that some voters might be wary of potential disruptions to the U.S. Postal Service.