Iranian analysts say Netanyahu's exit would not alter Israel's stance toward Tehran
Iranian commentators argue that a change in Israeli leadership is unlikely to reduce the country's military pressure on Iran, even as internal political negotiations continue after Israel's inconclusive election.
Iranian media have noted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's weakened position after Israel's recent parliamentary election, but analysts in Tehran argue that his removal would not fundamentally change Israel's approach toward Tehran. The Revolutionary Guards reported that three tankers were hit by naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, and Vice President Mohammadreza Aref said Iran's defensive readiness in the waterway has improved since the recent wars.
Analysts cited in the economic daily Donya-ye Eghtesad said war is not inevitable, pointing to ongoing back-channel contacts despite deep disagreements. Political analyst Rahman Ghahramanpour warned that any limited U.S. strike could evolve into a longer campaign of attacks and sanctions lasting eight to twelve months.
A Reuters investigation revealed that Iran has used more than 5,000 military-linked agencies to import at least $2 billion of equipment and supplies since January 2025, bypassing Western sanctions and the U.S. naval blockade.
Former diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi, writing in Shargh, dismissed predictions of an imminent war, noting that President Donald Trump's statements should not be taken as evidence of a decision to attack Iran. He outlined three U.S. options: pursue diplomacy, continue pressure, or launch another military operation, and argued that the dispute centers on the sequencing of concessions rather than fundamentally incompatible goals.
Former diplomat Fereydoun Majlesi, quoted by Fararu, said Iran's “neither war nor peace” situation is already imposing a heavy economic burden, as uncertainty forces businesses to hoard cash and delay investment, weakening production and growth.
Khorasan newspaper argued that while a change in Israeli leadership would not necessarily reduce the threat, Netanyahu's long-standing political and diplomatic networks give him unique capacity to shape U.S. policy and rally regional allies against Tehran. The paper wrote, "> Netanyahu is not merely a prime minister; he has built extensive political, regional and international connections that influence Washington's decisions. Removing such a figure could diminish part of the accumulated capacity against Iran, even if the overall policy framework remains unchanged."
Israel's election produced no clear majority, with Netanyahu's right-wing bloc projected to win 53 seats and rival Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc 48 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Both sides will need coalition partners, and Arab-led parties, projected to hold 19 seats, could play a decisive role.
U.S. officials continue to prepare for possible renewed strikes against Iran after the upcoming November 3 elections, while President Donald Trump said Vice President Mike Pence sought his approval to contact Iranian authorities for humanitarian aid, but denied ordering a restart of peace negotiations.
Regional mediators led by Qatar are working on proposals that could allow limited IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear sites in exchange for modest sanctions relief and the release of frozen funds, though Tehran has so far rejected any framework that does not meet its core demands.
Overall, Tehran's analysts stress that internal political shifts in Israel are unlikely to alter the strategic confrontation with Iran, and that prolonged uncertainty may further complicate any future settlement.