Support for California billionaire wealth tax falls to half of likely voters, poll shows

A new poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, indicates that half of likely voters plan to reject Proposition 40, a proposed one-time 5% tax on the assets of California billionaires, while 42% say they would support it. The survey shows a notable decline from earlier polling, which had the measure leading by a narrow margin.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, said the drop in support is “broad-based and spans virtually all major segments of the electorate.” He added that any poll showing support below 50% is a warning sign because undecided voters tend to vote against a measure.

Opposition to the wealth tax has been funded by a substantial advertising campaign, with opponents raising about $368 million compared with roughly $36 million raised by supporters. The campaign has aired ads across television and social-media platforms.

The poll also found strong resistance to Proposition 39, a voter-ID measure backed by Republicans, with nearly 60% of likely voters opposed. Support for related measures Proposition 41 and Proposition 42, which would limit new taxes and spending, has also slipped, though a plurality still backs each.

By contrast, a majority of voters (54%) continue to favor Proposition 3, which would make permanent a higher income-tax rate on the wealthy that funds education.

The findings align with a recent Public Policy Institute of California poll that showed 52% opposition to Proposition 40. The survey, conducted online in English and Spanish with 2,787 registered voters between Oct. 19-25, has a margin of error of about three points.

All 14 statewide measures, including the billionaire tax, voter-ID proposals, and other tax and campaign-finance initiatives, will appear on the Nov. 3 ballot alongside federal, congressional, local and judicial elections.