CNN Polls Show Democrats Leading in Michigan and Texas Senate Races, Tied in Maine and Kansas

CNN’s latest poll of likely voters in four Senate contests ahead of the midterm elections shows Democrats holding a lead in Michigan and Texas, with no decisive advantage in Maine or Kansas. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42%, reflecting growing unity among Democratic voters and reduced enthusiasm among some Republicans. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43%, buoyed by strong support from Black, Latino and Asian voters, including a portion that voted for President Donald Trump in 2024.

The Maine race between incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is tied at 45% for Collins and 49% for Jackson, making the contest a de facto referendum on Collins. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton holds a narrow 49% to 45% lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, though a majority of Kansas voters still express a preference for Republican control of the Senate.

The poll notes that a notable share of voters remain undecided: at least one in eight likely voters in three of the states say they could still change their preference, while in Texas and Kansas, many of the uncommitted voters lean Republican or Republican-leaning independent. The data suggest that while Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a Senate majority, the outcomes in these four states could be pivotal.

"Our supporters see their vote as a sign of support for the candidate rather than merely an anti-opponent vote," a spokesperson for Talarico’s campaign said.

"Voters are motivated primarily by opposition to the incumbent," a Hamilton campaign representative added.

The poll also highlights that candidate favorability influences voter decisions, with El-Sayed’s and Talarico’s positive ratings outpacing those of their Republican opponents, while Collins and Marshall face unfavorable views among portions of the electorate.