CNN Polls Show Democrats Ahead in Michigan and Texas Senate Races, With Maine and Kansas Still Up for Grabs
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New CNN polling of likely voters in four crucial Senate races shows Democrats leading in Michigan and Texas, while Maine and Kansas remain tightly contested and undecided.
CNN’s latest poll of likely voters in four Senate contests ahead of the midterm elections shows Democrats with an opening in Michigan and Texas, while Maine and Kansas remain too close to call. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42%, reflecting stronger Democratic unity and weaker enthusiasm among some Republican voters. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43%, powered by support from Black, Latino and Asian voters, including some who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024.
The Maine race between incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is effectively deadlocked at 45% for Collins and 49% for Jackson, turning the contest into a sharp judgment on Collins herself. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton holds a narrow 49% to 45% lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, even though a majority of Kansas voters still say they prefer Republican control of the Senate.
The poll also shows that many voters have not made up their minds: at least one in eight likely voters in three of the states say they could still change their preference, while in Texas and Kansas, many of the uncommitted voters lean Republican or Republican-leaning independent. The data suggest that although Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a Senate majority, the results in these four states could prove decisive.
"Our supporters see their vote as a sign of support for the candidate rather than merely an anti-opponent vote," a spokesperson for Talarico’s campaign said.
"Voters are motivated primarily by opposition to the incumbent," a Hamilton campaign representative added.
The poll also underscores that candidate favorability matters, with El-Sayed’s and Talarico’s positive ratings running ahead of their Republican opponents, while Collins and Marshall face unfavorable views from significant portions of the electorate.