NPR analysis finds 70 House districts drawing heavy ad spending from both parties as the 2026 midterms heat up
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An NPR study says 70 congressional districts are seeing at least six-figure advertising investments from Democrats and Republicans as the 2026 midterm election nears, highlighting a competitive landscape shaped by voter concern, redistricting, and the influence of the Trump administration’s agenda.
Ad spending data from the final week of the 2026 midterm election shows that both major parties are allocating six-figure sums to 70 House districts, according to an NPR analysis. The spending includes more than $10 million in toss-up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida, and seven-figure purchases in traditionally Republican areas such as Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas, showing that Democrats are attempting to contest ground that has often leaned right.
The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats, with 17 listed as toss-ups and another 30 considered potentially competitive but leaning Republican. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll indicates Democrats hold a 10-point lead among registered voters and an eight-point lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, suggesting a wider field of competitive races than the Cook ratings alone and underscoring the intensity of the fight for control.
Several districts that voted for one party’s presidential candidate while electing the opposite party’s House member have shifted toward Democrats, including seats held by Rep. Adam Gray (CA-13), Rep. Nellie Pou (NJ-09) and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-03). Republicans have reduced ad reservations in these areas, according to AdImpact data, a sign that campaign strategists are being more selective as they concentrate resources where they think they can win.
Cost of living concerns, rising gas prices, tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran are top issues for voters, while a high number of announced retirements and primary anti-incumbency trends add further uncertainty. Recent redistricting following a Supreme Court decision that altered the Voting Rights Act has also reshaped several districts, with both parties redrawing lines to influence partisan balance and create maps that reflect the legal and political realities on the ground.
The most expensive races projected for the final days include Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District, each expected to see over $12 million in spending. Other high-spending contests are in Florida’s 14th, 22nd and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th District, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd Districts. In total, the 70 districts receiving six-figure ad buys from each side voted for Trump by an average margin of nine points in 2024.
Sixty districts are identified as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign organizations, reflecting the impact of the Trump administration’s policies on voter sentiment over the past year. Not all of these races are expected to be close; some Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-listed “Districts In Play” received minimal ad spending from either party, illustrating that even in a high-spending cycle, many races remain stable enough that only a limited amount of airtime is needed.