NPR analysis shows both parties pouring six-figure ad money into 70 House districts ahead of the 2026 midterms
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An NPR study finds that 70 congressional districts are already being flooded with at least six-figure advertising spending from Democrats and Republicans as the 2026 midterm election approaches, underscoring a political landscape shaped by intense money, anxiety, and the fallout from Trump administration policies.
Ad spending data from the final week of the 2026 midterm election shows that both major parties are dumping six-figure sums into 70 House districts, according to an NPR analysis. The spending includes more than $10 million in toss-up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida, and seven-figure purchases in traditionally Republican areas such as Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas, revealing just how aggressively both sides are trying to buy influence in places that were once considered safe.
The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats, with 17 listed as toss-ups and another 30 considered potentially competitive but leaning Republican. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll indicates Democrats hold a 10-point lead among registered voters and an eight-point lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, suggesting a broader field of competitive races than the Cook ratings alone and pointing to real vulnerability for Republicans.
Several districts that voted for one party’s presidential candidate while electing the opposite party’s House member have shifted toward Democrats, including seats held by Rep. Adam Gray (CA-13), Rep. Nellie Pou (NJ-09) and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-03). Republicans have cut back ad reservations in these areas, according to AdImpact data, as they face a map that is becoming more difficult to defend.
Cost of living concerns, rising gas prices, tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran are top issues for voters, while a high number of announced retirements and primary anti-incumbency trends add further uncertainty. Recent redistricting following a Supreme Court decision that altered the Voting Rights Act has also reshaped several districts, with both parties redrawing lines to influence partisan balance and squeeze every possible advantage from the map.
The most expensive races projected for the final days include Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District, each expected to see over $12 million in spending. Other high-spending contests are in Florida’s 14th, 22nd and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th District, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd Districts. In total, the 70 districts receiving six-figure ad buys from each side voted for Trump by an average margin of nine points in 2024.
Sixty districts are identified as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign organizations, reflecting the impact of the Trump administration’s policies on voter sentiment over the past year. Not all of these races are expected to be close; some Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-listed “Districts In Play” received minimal ad spending from either party, a reminder that political operatives often exaggerate the battlefield even when the money tells a more complicated story.