Los Angeles mayoral race tightens as Bass’s law-and-order politics collide with Raman’s progressive challenge
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A University of California-Berkeley poll released Wednesday shows incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman locked at 40% each among likely voters, with 19% still undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
A recent University of California-Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows the Los Angeles mayoral contest has narrowed into a dead heat, with incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and challenger Councilmember Nithya Raman both at 40% support among likely voters and 19% still undecided, according to the survey released Wednesday. The poll, conducted online in English and Spanish with 2,197 respondents between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25, carries a margin of error of about three points.
In September, Raman held an 11-point lead (39% to Bass’s 28%). The latest results suggest a shift driven in part by voters who supported Republican Spencer Pratt in the primary; 41% of those voters now favor Bass, while 14% back Raman, with 45% remaining undecided.
Demographic trends also appear to have changed. Among likely Black voters, Bass leads 71% to 13%, while support among Latino voters is now within the margin of error, with Bass at 40% and Raman at 43%. In the San Fernando Valley, Bass leads 44% to 33%.
"It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close. She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll.
Both candidates have intensified their campaign tactics. Bass’s team has seized on Raman’s remarks about the police and her association with a left-leaning influencer, while Raman’s camp has defended her statements as criticism of the Trump administration’s immigration policies and broader enforcement agenda. The poll also recorded a shift in favorability: Bass’s unfavorable rating stands at 65% versus 64% in the previous survey, and Raman’s unfavorable rating rose to 49% compared with 42% favorable.
When asked about priorities for the next mayor, 43% of likely voters identified reducing homeless encampments as the top issue, followed by public safety and affordable housing at 29% each.