Israel's election results expose a coalition scramble driven by right-wing deadlock
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With no party winning a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, Israeli politicians must now haggle over alliances to reach the 61-seat threshold required to form the next government.
Israel's parliamentary election on October 27 produced a fractured result, with no clear winner and a fresh round of coalition bargaining. The Central Elections Committee’s initial count placed Likud as the largest single party with 27 seats, but neither the Likud bloc nor the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot reached the 61 seats needed for a governing majority.
Exit polls published on election night showed the two blocs running almost neck and neck: Kan 11 and Channel 13 projected both blocs at 51 seats each; Channel 12 gave Netanyahu’s bloc 52 seats versus Eisenkot’s 49; and Channel 15 estimated 55 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc against 49 for the opposition. Parties must therefore scramble for additional partners to bridge the gap created by a deeply divided electorate.
Israel’s electoral system allocates Knesset seats proportionally to parties that surpass a 3.25 percent threshold. The Arab-led parties Ra’am and the Joint List together hold between 16 and 19 seats in the polls, making them possible kingmakers in a system where their support is repeatedly courted and then publicly rejected. However, Netanyahu has publicly dismissed a coalition with Arab parties as “shameful,” and leaders of the Jewish-led opposition have also ruled out such arrangements, sharply narrowing viable coalition options.
Netanyahu’s bloc comprises Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right parties Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit. Eisenkot’s opposition bloc includes his Yashar party, the Together list linked to former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan’s Democrats.
After the official results are certified, the president will assign a mandate to the Knesset member most likely to assemble a majority. The designated lawmaker has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to form a government. Failure to do so could lead to another lawmaker receiving a mandate or, ultimately, a new election, as occurred in previous cycles.
Benjamin Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for a total of 19 years across three terms, remains caretaker prime minister while negotiations proceed. He is also facing a corruption trial, which he denies. Official results are expected on November 4, and coalition talks may extend beyond the initial deadline.