Super PAC Cash and Wall-to-Wall Ads Flood the Closing Week of 2025 Midterm Races
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Fresh data shows industry-backed super PACs, billionaire money, and record ad spending are distorting several competitive Senate and gubernatorial contests as the 2025 midterms enter their final stretch.
A data-center industry super PAC called Building The Future has spent almost $2 million on television ads backing Republican Sen. Darline Graham in her tight South Carolina Senate race. The ads tout Graham’s tax cuts and cast her as a bulwark against “Washington liberals,” a familiar line in a campaign saturated with moneyed messaging.
Building The Future, an offshoot of the tech-focused Leading The Future PAC and its nonprofit Build American AI, was created to push back against rising public resistance to data-center projects, which industry advocates say are vital for artificial-intelligence development. The group has also booked six-figure ad buys in a competitive Senate race in Kansas, where incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall faces a serious challenge.
In Michigan, Vice President JD Vance praised Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers as a “servant for the people of Michigan,” while attacking Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and implying that he is aligned with national Democratic leadership. Vance described the Michigan contest as “the most important election in the United States of America.”
Election forecasters at the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 21 Senate races and 16 House contests toward Democrats, underscoring the difficulty Republicans face in holding their majorities. Ratings in North Carolina, Florida and South Carolina moved in Democrats’ favor, though the latter two remain “Likely Republican” and “Leans Republican,” respectively.
Ad-tracking firm AdImpact says the final week of the midterms will bring enormous spending in red-state Senate contests. Ohio’s Senate race has already topped $500 million in total ad purchases, while Texas is projected to exceed $555 million. Kansas, Iowa and Michigan are each expected to draw roughly $27 million to $30 million in advertising.
A large bet of $499,800 was placed on Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s re-election, giving him a 70% implied chance of winning, according to prediction-market data from Kalshi. Betting-intelligence analyst Dan Zimmermann called it the biggest single-race wager seen on major platforms for the midterms.
President Donald Trump announced that a tanker carrying one million barrels of Venezuelan oil will dock in Corpus Christi, describing the shipment as the first of “billions of barrels” to arrive at no cost to taxpayers. He also said gasoline and diesel prices would soon “plummet down.”
Elon Musk contributed $5 million to Abbott’s campaign, adding to a prior $500,000 donation, according to Texas campaign-finance filings. Abbott’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Gina Hinojosa, has requested access to emails between Abbott’s office and Musk, alleging possible corruption.
House Speaker Mike Johnson said the Republican Party expects to retain its House majority and promised a “peaceful transfer of power” only if Democrats were to win, while emphasizing his confidence in President Trump’s continued influence over the election.
Overall, the data points to unprecedented ad spending, heavy super-PAC intervention and high-profile political donations shaping the final stretch of the 2025 midterm elections.