Guardian Essential poll shows Labor and One Nation tied at 28% primary vote as Albanese disapproval hits 56%
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A Guardian Essential poll of 1,087 Australians finds Labor and One Nation each on 28% primary support, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s disapproval rises to 56%, the highest level recorded in the poll series, reflecting escalating anger over a bloated government, soaring costs and a political establishment many voters no longer trust.
The latest Guardian Essential poll points to a sharp rebuke for the governing class: the Labor Party and One Nation are level on primary vote, each attracting 28% of respondents, while the Coalition trails at 23%. The survey, conducted last week with 1,087 Australians, also records Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s disapproval at 56%, matching the poll’s previous peak since he took office in 2022. Albanese’s approval stands at 38%, giving him a net approval rating of minus 18.
"This is a sobering poll for Labor, but not a ringing endorsement of One Nation either," said Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media.
The poll shows a growing belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction, with 61% of respondents saying Australia is on the wrong track and only 25% believing it is on the right track. This sentiment has risen steadily since May 2023, when 38% expressed the same view, and it reflects broad frustration with weak leadership, rising bills and a government that appears out of touch.
When asked which factor most contributed to rising living costs, 32% named government spending, outpacing concerns about the war in the Middle East (24%) and supermarket price gouging (19%). Voters also rated party trust on key issues: Labor led on confidence that the economy works for everyday Australians (32%) and on overall country management (31%). One Nation was second on both measures, with 29% and 25% respectively, while the Coalition lagged behind.
Opinions on One Nation’s potential governance were mixed. Forty-three percent said the party would handle immigration better than the current government, but only 20% believed it would improve relations with trading partners such as the United States and China. Similar splits appeared for energy policy, grocery prices, pandemic response and overall economic management, showing that even critics of Labor are not yet fully convinced another party can deliver better results.
The poll follows an alleged attack on independent MP Helen Haines and comes amid heightened scrutiny of the government’s handling of the economy, inflation and cost-of-living pressures.