Nate Silver predicts midterms may slow President Trump's momentum but not his mandate
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Polling analyst Nate Silver said the upcoming midterm elections could reduce President Donald Trump's leverage in Washington, while he remains in office through 2027.
Polling expert Nate Silver told The Ezra Klein Podcast that if the November 3 midterm results follow current poll trends, they could mark a setback in President Donald Trump's era of influence. > "If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era," Silver said. He added that while Trump will remain president for two more years, a weak showing in the 2028 election cycle could leave him more vulnerable as a "lame duck." Democrats are expected to regain control of the House, as the party in power typically loses seats in midterm contests and the GOP currently holds a narrow majority. House Democrats have indicated they may pursue impeachment proceedings if they win the chamber. Silver's polling averages show Democratic candidates leading in several key Senate races, including traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Kansas, as well as contests in Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Georgia and Michigan. The generic ballot average from the Silver Bulletin places Democrats at 51.8% versus 42.3% for Republicans, suggesting a substantial advantage for the party. White House spokesperson Ingle Davis responded to Silver's forecast, stating that underestimating President Trump and his administration has historically led experts and pollsters to miss outcomes. During the same interview, Silver noted that artificial intelligence could become a major issue in the 2028 election, potentially alongside the economy.