Nate Silver says midterms could sharply curb President Trump's grip on power
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Polling analyst Nate Silver warned that the upcoming midterm elections may substantially weaken President Donald Trump's political leverage, even as he remains in office until 2027.
Polling expert Nate Silver told The Ezra Klein Podcast that if the November 3 midterm results track current poll trends, they could signal the beginning of the end of President Donald Trump's era of influence. > "If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era," Silver said. He added that while Trump will remain president for two more years, a poor performance in the 2028 election cycle could leave him isolated as a "lame duck." Democrats are expected to regain control of the House, as the party in power typically loses seats in midterm contests and the GOP currently holds a narrow majority. House Democrats have indicated they may pursue impeachment proceedings if they win the chamber. Silver's polling averages show Democratic candidates leading in several key Senate races, including traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Kansas, as well as contests in Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Georgia and Michigan. The generic ballot average from the Silver Bulletin places Democrats at 51.8% versus 42.3% for Republicans, suggesting a substantial edge for the party. White House spokesperson Ingle Davis responded to Silver's forecast, stating that underestimating President Trump and his administration has historically led experts and pollsters to miss outcomes. During the same interview, Silver noted that artificial intelligence could become a major issue in the 2028 election, potentially alongside the economy.