Iranians Anticipate Possible Renewed Conflict Ahead of Israeli and U.S. Elections

Iranian residents are closely monitoring the Israeli parliamentary vote and the United States midterm elections, concerned that the outcomes could trigger a resurgence of hostilities that began with the February 28 war. Since that conflict, Iran has endured bombings, a naval blockade and sanctions, though the intensity of attacks fell after a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran was reached in June.

Despite the lull, analysts say the risk of renewed strikes remains high, and many Iranians expect further military actions regardless of which candidates win. "I haven’t followed the Israeli election very closely. But I think there will be more fighting whether Netanyahu wins or Eisenkot or someone else," said Sajad, a 37-year-old Tehran resident who asked to remain anonymous for safety reasons.

Iranian authorities continue to label citizens perceived as supportive of Israel as "homeland sellers" and prosecute alleged cooperation under national-security statutes. The government also attributes the nationwide protests of January, which resulted in numerous civilian deaths, to U.S. and Israeli actions, a claim echoed by United Nations findings that Iranian security forces committed crimes against humanity during the crackdown.

Shayan, a 32-year-old Tehran resident, said the extensive bombing of infrastructure such as oil, gas, power and steel facilities has shifted public opinion. "I think some people’s viewpoints adjusted after some of the comments from the US and Israel, and after they bombed infrastructure that we need to live, like oil and gas, power and steel," he told Al Jazeera. "I think most Iranians don’t have a choice in the matter, but want some stability and peace."

President Trump has warned of further strikes on Iranian power plants, bridges and other civilian targets if hostilities resume, and has suggested the possibility of extending the naval blockade that has curtailed Iran’s oil exports since July. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has similarly threatened additional attacks on Iranian energy facilities, with Defence Minister Israel Katz stating a desire to push Iran "back into the Stone Age."

Opposition figures in Israel, including Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, have expressed support for the U.S.–Israeli campaign against Iran’s nuclear program and the broader "axis of resistance," though some, like opposition leader Eisenkot, argue that lasting change must come from within Iran.

In anticipation of possible renewed attacks, some Iranians have formed informal alert networks using messaging apps and text messages to warn each other of incoming fighter jets. One user, identified as Ali on a social platform, wrote, "In all seriousness, 90 million people have our eyes to the sky to see when there will be war."