Poll Shows Democrats Ahead as Trump Continues to Dominate and Distort the 2026 Midterms
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A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll finds Democrats leading Republicans among likely voters, with many voters saying their ballots are driven by opposition to President Donald Trump rather than enthusiasm for the GOP.
Democrats lead Republicans by about 10 points among registered voters, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released a week before Election Day. The margin sits within the poll’s error range, but Democrats have held a steady advantage since November. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said the lead reflects "a net advantage just from some partisan crossover, not enormous," while noting that independents are backing Democrats by double digits.
Early voting may already have locked in much of the Democratic edge, with more than 30 million ballots cast nationwide, half of them mailed in. The poll shows that 68% of voters who have already voted support Democrats, while the remaining voters are split evenly between the parties.
Republican strategists admit that many of their supporters are hoping to wait until Election Day, with half of Republican likely voters planning to cast an in-person ballot compared with 31% of Democrats. Both parties expect a competitive Senate race, though Democrats are seen as having a slight advantage.
President Donald Trump has been the central force in the Republican campaign, holding rallies in over a dozen states, most of which he won in 2024. The poll indicates that 44% of likely voters see their congressional vote as a vote against Trump, more than double the 21% who view it as a vote for him. Among Democrats and independents, opposition to Trump is a major motivator, while only 12% of independents say they are voting to support him.
"Accountability and opposition to Trump is enough to get out your normal midterm majority to win for Democrats," Democratic strategist Joel Payne said, adding that this anger-based mobilization may not be enough to build a durable long-term coalition.
Republican strategist Melik Abdul expressed concern about the party’s prospects, saying the House appears "very much out of our reach" but that Republicans could still cling to the Senate by a narrow margin.
Voter priorities center on the cost of living (34%) and preserving democracy (33%). Democrats rank democracy higher, while Republicans put the economy first. Economic strain remains widespread, with 38% of likely voters saying their family finances have worsened over the past year.
Enthusiasm for voting is high overall, but Democrats lead among the most enthusiastic voters (71% vs. 61% for Republicans). Younger voters under 45 favor Democrats by 22 points, though they show lower levels of very high enthusiasm than older voters.
Despite $10 billion spent on advertising in the 2026 cycle, 39% of likely voters report no contact from campaigns. Democrats report higher outreach rates than Republicans.
Trump’s repeated claims about election integrity have not resonated broadly; more than three-quarters of likely voters say they are confident their state or local elections will be fair. Still, his rhetoric appears to be pushing independents away, according to Miringoff.
The poll also shows turnout plans are hardening, with 40% intending to vote on Election Day, 25% planning early in-person voting, and 12% planning to vote by mail.