Democrats Favored to Control Congress as Trump Approval Hits New Low

With eight days left before the November 3 midterms, Nate Silver’s forecast model assigns Democrats a three-in-four probability of taking the Senate and an overwhelming likelihood of securing the House of Representatives. The generic ballot shows Democrats ahead of Republicans by 9.5 points, a margin that has remained steady throughout October.

President Trump’s net approval in Silver’s aggregate of national polls is -23.3, with 60.2% of respondents disapproving of his performance and 36.9% approving. The latest YouGov poll indicates that a majority of Americans sympathise more with Ukraine than Russia, while a smaller share believes Trump aligns with Russia.

Silver’s model also tracks public sentiment toward the conflict in Iran, finding that 55.2% of respondents oppose the war, a slight improvement from earlier in the month. Economic indicators show gasoline prices averaging $4.29 per gallon, while Brent crude has risen to $116.72 a barrel, suggesting further increases in fuel costs before the election.

The upcoming election will decide all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. In the 2024 cycle, Republicans held a narrow majority in both chambers. To gain Senate control, Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats, while a modest lead in the generic ballot could secure a House majority.

"Democrats lead Republicans by 9.5 points on the generic ballot, and President Trump’s net approval is -23.3," the forecast notes.

Analysts caution that continued volatility in oil prices and the ongoing Iran conflict could influence voter sentiment, but current projections keep Democrats as the clear front-runners for congressional control.