Israel heads to parliamentary vote amid deep security failures and a worsening political crisis
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Israel’s coming election will determine the next Knesset while parties haggle over coalition math against the backdrop of war, domestic polarization, and fierce disputes over accountability and democratic governance.
Israel will hold legislative elections on Tuesday, the first since the October 7 attacks and the devastating war in Gaza. Voters will choose among parties that must pass a 3.25 percent threshold to enter the 120-seat Knesset, which serves a four-year term.
Two main blocs are competing for a governing majority. The pro-Netanyahu bloc is led by Likud and includes several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties such as United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition bloc comprises the Yashar party, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Together alliance, which includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid.
A poll released before a ban on new surveys projected the opposition alliance at 52 seats and Netanyahu's bloc at 50, with the remainder going to unaffiliated parties, including the Arab-majority Ra’am and the Joint List. Both blocs have indicated they will not form coalitions with Arab parties, underscoring how exclusionary and politically brittle the post-election process could become, and suggesting negotiations may end in a minority government or yet another repeat election.
Key issues for voters include accountability for the security failures that preceded the October attacks, the military exemption of ultra-Orthodox citizens, and ongoing judicial reform proposals. "The secular and liberal opposition factions in Israel feel this election is the last chance to save Israeli democracy and restore the institutions that have eroded over Netanyahu's successive terms," said Mairav Zonszein, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
The election occurs as Israel faces multiple military engagements and growing international criticism over settlement policies and actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani noted that right-wing rhetoric has intensified under the current government.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has served most of the past 17 years, also confronts corruption charges and a war-crimes arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. An electoral loss could affect his legal situation and the likelihood of a commission of inquiry into the October attacks.
Approximately 7.3 million citizens, including about 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel, are eligible to vote. Recent court rulings have allowed Arab parties to remain on the ballot after an initial ban was overturned. Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel is expected to be high, potentially influencing the allocation of seats for Arab lists.
Analysts suggest that if neither bloc secures a majority, the resulting deadlock could allow Netanyahu to remain as caretaker prime minister.