Israel's October 27 election could produce multiple coalition scenarios

Israel will hold a nationwide election on October 27 to fill all 120 seats in the Knesset. Opinion polls show the opposition bloc projected to win 52 seats and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist alliance 50 seats, meaning coalition talks will determine the next government.

Netanyahu could retain the premiership if Likud secures enough support from allies such as the Jewish Power party, Religious Zionism, and ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, which have previously joined his coalitions.

Four opposition parties – Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu and the Together alliance – have signed a non-aggression pact aimed at forming a majority without Netanyahu. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett are mentioned as possible prime ministerial candidates for such a bloc.

The Arab-led Joint List and Ra’am, projected to win about 13 seats, could be asked to join a coalition. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has indicated willingness to cooperate, citing priorities such as combating crime in Palestinian communities and addressing housing discrimination, though opposition leaders have largely dismissed the prospect.

A minority government could seek external support from parties like the Joint List without formally including them, demanding policy concessions such as a pathway to Palestinian statehood.

Other possibilities include a national unity government, a rotating premiership, or the selection of a different Knesset member as prime minister if negotiations stall. Should no viable coalition emerge, Israel may face another election, leaving Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister.

"We are united in our goal to preserve and strengthen Israel as a Jewish and democratic state," the opposition pact said.

Mansour Abbas said his party is ready to help "combat the wave of violent crime" and address "discriminatory government policies, including on housing."