Early voting surge may not translate into higher overall midterm turnout, says MIT scholar
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MIT political scientist Charles Stewart warns that the rise in early ballots does not necessarily signal a real expansion of democratic participation in the midterm elections, especially amid heavy campaign spending and ongoing barriers to voting.
Nearly 21 million Americans have already cast ballots in the midterm elections, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, which tracks voting by mail and in person. While the figure can be presented as evidence of strong early engagement, experts caution that it may not lead to higher overall turnout, especially in a political system where access and mobilization are shaped by money and party strategy.
Charles Stewart, a political science professor at MIT and director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, told NPR's Morning Edition that many early voters would likely have voted on Election Day anyway. He said the increase reflects both voter enthusiasm and the enormous campaign spending aimed at pushing supporters to vote early, rather than any simple measure of broad democratic renewal.
"It also kind of reflects the large amount of money that's in this campaign that's going into retail politics, going door to door, and just making sure that supporters are energized," Stewart said.
Stewart noted shifts in voting patterns between the parties. Democrats continue to lead in mail voting, though the gap has narrowed as more Democrats opt for early in-person voting. Republicans retain a slight edge in early in-person voting, but that advantage could also shrink as campaigns intensify their efforts.
He highlighted notable early voting activity in Maine and Iowa, states that have not been central battlegrounds in recent cycles, attributing the rise to both voter enthusiasm and targeted campaign outreach in traditionally less active regions.
In a conversation with NPR's A. Martinez, Stewart also addressed concerns about the U.S. Postal Service and President Trump's opposition to mail voting, discussing how these factors may be influencing voter behavior and the continued relevance of polls despite their limitations in a deeply polarized political environment.