Maine Senate Race Poll Shows Collins and Jackson Tied at 49% Amid Low Approval of President Trump
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A Fox News poll of likely Maine voters finds Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson dead-locked at 49% each, while more than 60% disapprove of President Donald Trump’s performance.
A Fox News poll of likely voters in Maine indicates a close contest between incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, with both candidates at 49% support. The survey, conducted October 16-20, 2026, sampled 1,689 registered voters and 1,514 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points for the latter group.
The poll shows that 62% of respondents disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, including 20% of Republicans, and only 37% approve. Concern about Collins voting with Trump is cited by 53% of voters, while 46% say Jackson is too liberal.
Among likely voters, Democrats favor a Democratic-led Senate (53% to 45% for Republicans). Jackson leads among voters who are certain to vote and among those who have already cast a ballot, while Collins leads among voters planning to vote on Election Day. Voter enthusiasm appears higher for Democrats (79% extremely interested) than for Republicans (61%).
Demographic splits show younger voters (<45) preferring Collins by six points, older voters favoring Jackson by three points, women backing Jackson by five points, and men favoring Collins by four points. Voters with a college degree prefer Jackson by 23 points, whereas those without a degree favor Collins by 16 points. Rural residents lean toward Collins, while suburban voters lean toward Jackson.
Both candidates have low personal favorability ratings, with Collins at 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable, and Jackson at 47% favorable and 49% unfavorable. Party loyalists overwhelmingly support their respective candidates, and independents lean toward Collins by 13 points.
"Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage," said Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, which conducts the poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "Trump’s job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line."
Shaw added that Republicans need strong turnout among white rural voters, noting, "GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas."
The poll also notes that in Maine’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, while independent Rick Bennett trails at 9%.