Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico tied at 49% in latest poll

A new Fox News poll released Wednesday finds Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 49% among likely Texas voters in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn. The poll shows the contest remaining level after Talarico’s earlier two-point lead in September.

Paxton’s support has risen slightly among men and women, while Talarico’s backing fell modestly in the same period. Talarico leads among Black voters, urban residents, voters under 30 and women with a college degree, whereas Paxton’s strongest groups are White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters and seniors.

Hispanic voters now favor Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) after previously backing President Trump by a narrow margin in 2024. Overall, Texans prefer Republican control of the U.S. Senate by four points (51%-47%).

Party loyalty remains high, with 98% of Democrats supporting Talarico and 90% of Republicans backing Paxton. Nearly 30% of non-MAGA Republicans say they would vote for Talarico.

"The race is going to come down to two basic questions," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-conducted the poll. "Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?"

Talarico’s overall favorability is marginally positive (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxton’s ratings are negative (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Voter concerns about the candidates are similar, with roughly half of respondents expressing worries about each candidate’s positions.

In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by five points (52%-47%). Abbott holds a slight approval edge (50% approve, 48% disapprove).