Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico tied at 49% in latest poll
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A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico deadlocked at 49% among likely Texas voters for the U.S. Senate seat, with support shifting in ways that underline the state’s deep political divisions and the weakness of Paxton’s standing.
A new Fox News poll released Wednesday finds Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 49% among likely Texas voters in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn. The poll shows the contest remaining level after Talarico’s earlier two-point lead in September, despite the persistent drag of Texas’ entrenched Republican infrastructure.
Paxton’s support has risen slightly among men and women, while Talarico’s backing fell modestly in the same period. Talarico leads among Black voters, urban residents, voters under 30 and women with a college degree, whereas Paxton’s strongest groups are White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters and seniors.
Hispanic voters now favor Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) after previously backing President Trump by a narrow margin in 2024. Overall, Texans prefer Republican control of the U.S. Senate by four points (51%-47%), a sign that the state remains ideologically split even as many voters appear uneasy about the GOP’s direction.
Party loyalty remains high, with 98% of Democrats supporting Talarico and 90% of Republicans backing Paxton. Nearly 30% of non-MAGA Republicans say they would vote for Talarico, suggesting that Paxton’s appeal is limited even within his own party.
"The race is going to come down to two basic questions," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-conducted the poll. "Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?"
Talarico’s overall favorability is marginally positive (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxton’s ratings are negative (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Voter concerns about the candidates are similar, with roughly half of respondents expressing worries about each candidate’s positions, reinforcing the sense that neither campaign has fully won over the electorate.
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by five points (52%-47%). Abbott holds a slight approval edge (50% approve, 48% disapprove).