Trump's approval rating hits record low as midterms approach

President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to about 31 percent, the lowest level recorded during his two terms, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday. The same survey found that 47 percent of respondents would vote for Democratic candidates if the midterm elections were held today, compared with 35 percent for Republicans, creating a 12-point Democratic advantage.

The poll, which surveyed 1,679 adults, also indicated that women are increasingly favoring Democrats and that 40 percent of voters view Democrats as better at managing the economy, versus 33 percent for Republicans. Analysts note that sitting presidents typically see a dip in approval before midterms, and historically low presidential ratings have corresponded with larger losses for the governing party in Congress.

Historical data from the University of California, Santa Barbara, shows that when presidential approval falls below 50 percent, the incumbent party usually loses seats. Researchers therefore suggest that Trump's record-low rating could make it difficult for Republicans to maintain their current slim majorities in the House and Senate.

Nevertheless, the Center for Politics points out that approval ratings in exit polls can be slightly higher than pre-election surveys, meaning voter turnout and campaign effectiveness will still play a decisive role. Projections from NBC News indicate possible Democratic gains in several House districts and Senate seats, though the final outcome will depend on how parties mobilize their supporters.