Trump focuses midterm campaign trips on states he won by double digits
President Donald Trump is concentrating his midterm rally schedule on red states that gave him large margins in 2024, while fewer Republican candidates in competitive races are appearing with him.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll showed that when voters consider a Democratic versus a Republican Congress, the gap widens to 19 points in favor of Democrats when President Donald Trump is mentioned. The data helps explain why many Republican candidates in swing districts are cautious about sharing the stage with Trump.
Analysis of the president’s travel itinerary indicates that he has visited or plans to visit nearly 20 states that voted for him by an average of 14 points, including dark-red states such as Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Only five states on his schedule did not give him a double-digit margin, one of which was New York, a state he lost in 2024.
Republican Senate hopefuls who have joined Trump on the campaign trail tend to be from states he won comfortably, such as Nebraska, South Carolina and Kansas, or from states where their polls are close, like Texas, Ohio and Alaska. In contrast, candidates in more competitive or blue-leaning states, including Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire, have not yet been linked to Trump events.
Similar patterns appear in gubernatorial races. While some candidates in tight contests, such as Nevada and Georgia, have campaigned with Trump, others in states like Alaska, Arizona and Ohio—where they are viewed as underdogs—have also done so. Governors and other high-profile Republicans, including Texas Governor Greg Abbott and several New York GOP officials, have notably skipped Trump rallies.
The attendance record of Republican candidates at Trump events varies. Some, like Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa, have avoided the president’s appearances despite expressing openness to his visit, while others have distanced themselves on policy issues. The evolving schedule raises questions about which candidates will appear with Trump in upcoming stops in Iowa and Michigan.
Overall, the president’s emphasis on campaigning in strong-hold states and his presence in key races suggest a strategic focus on boosting turnout among his base, though the impact on individual GOP contests remains uncertain.